We’re getting a sneak peek at what this winter season could be like—and feel like—in Michigan.
That National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) released their annual seasonal outlook for the country, which generally predicts what winter may bring.
From December 2022 to February 2023, NOAA predicts drier than average conditions throughout the South, with wetter than average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies, and Pacific Northwest. This year, La Niña returns for the third straight winter with warmer than average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and East Coast.
“The hard-working forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal and short-term forecasts year-round,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “NOAA’s new supercomputers enable us to develop even better, more detailed forecasting capabilities that we will roll out in the coming years.”
Winter 2022-2023: US temperature outlook
As you can see from the map below, it looks like a fairly normal winter for temperature in the Lower Peninsula, with slightly below average temperatures predicted in the Upper Peninsula and western Great Lakes region.
The best chance for warmer than average temperatures is in western Alaska, and the central Great Basin and southwest that stretch through the southern plains.
Warmer than average temperatures are also favored in the southeastern United States and along the Atlantic coast.
Winter 2022-2023: US Precipitation Outlook
As the map below shows, wetter than average is most likely in Lower and Upper Michigan, western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
That means more precipitation for Michigan this winter — which could translate to more snow, depending on temperatures.
The greatest chances for drier than average conditions are forecast for parts of California, the Southwest, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast.
The rest of the United States falls into the equal-chance category of seasonal total precipitation below, near, or above average.
About NOAA’s seasonal outlook
NOAA’s seasonal outlook provides the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation totals will be above, near, or below average and how drought conditions are expected to change in the coming months. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations, as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook every month. The next update will be available on November 17th.
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