Australia is adding a new migrant “every minute” amid claims the government’s promise to return numbers to “sustainable” levels has already been broken.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday suggests the government has already exceeded its net overseas migration target of 395,000 people in the last financial year, with a full month of arrivals still to be counted, according to analysis by the Institute of Public Affairs.
The analysis is based on data on net permanent and long-term arrivals, which are calculated differently from the all-important net overseas migration figure that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to reduce.
The IPA claims that net permanent and long-term arrivals data have historically closely tracked Reliable forecaster From net overseas migration figures, which are reported with a significant six-month lag by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Latest full fiscal year net external income Immigration numbers Official statistics for 2022-23 showed the country added a record 528,000 people in the 12 months to June 30, 2023.
Facing mounting political pressure, the federal government has promised to reduce immigration to “more sustainable” levels, with the May budget projecting it to fall to 395,000 in 2023-24 before stabilising at 260,000 in the current fiscal year.
The final result for fiscal 2023-24 won’t be known until December — but the Economic Policy Institute says comparing apples to oranges suggests the government has already exceeded its budget target of 395,000 jobs.
According to the Tourism Policy Institute analysis, the number of permanent and long-term arrivals in May was 25,940, the second highest number recorded for May, behind 31,310 in May 2023, bringing the total since July 2023 to 445,510.
Between January and May, net arrivals reached 242,750, the highest number recorded during the first five months of the calendar year, surpassing the previous record of 208,090 set last year.
Since the beginning of the year, a net 1,607 migrants — roughly four 747 passenger jets — have arrived in the country every day. “That’s more than one new net migrant every minute of every day,” the Migration and Refugee Agency said.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has pledged to cut net overseas migration to 160,000 people a year if elected.
“The latest ABS data confirms that the federal government is simply not interested in delivering on its promise to reduce Australia’s record migration flow, and will significantly over-commit to overseas migration,” Dr Kevin Yeo, a fellow at the International Policy Institute, said in a statement.
“The Prime Minister’s commitment to halve migration, made just two months ago, is not worth the paper it’s written on and is just another promise by a government that makes it harder for ordinary Australians to get ahead. Recent data confirms that Australia’s immigration program is being run for the benefit of big business and universities… not the benefit of the Australian people.”
However, the government is understood to believe it is on track to halve net outward migration from its record high by the end of June next year, with early estimates for the September and December quarters suggesting numbers peaked in September and are now falling.
The government does not consider the net number of permanent and long-term arrivals to be a reliable indicator of net foreign migration because of problems with double counting.
For example, a migrant is counted in net permanent and long-term arrivals every time they leave the country, such as leaving for Christmas and returning, but is only counted in net overseas migration on the date of their initial arrival in Australia.
The Interior Ministry declined to comment on whether it believed the budget target of $395,000 would be met.
In the first two quarters of the fiscal year, net outward migration was 258,000.
For the government to meet its commitment to create 395,000 jobs over the rest of the year, net take-up would need to be 137,000 jobs, or 68,500 jobs for each of the remaining two quarters.
The average quarterly admissions under the Albanian government was 122,500.
The record surge in immigration comes at a time when housing prices and rents are at record highs and housing construction is at 1980s levels, Dr. Yu said.
“Australians are suffering from a cost of living crisis caused by unplanned mass migration,” he said.
Previous IPA research has suggested that Australians leave thousands of dollars behind. Worse off On a per capita basis due to mass migration, with the “vast majority” of Australia’s major economic growth being generated through population growth.
GDP per capita has fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter since March 2023.
Real GDP per capita growth has been below the long-term trend since 1990 over the past eight years. Had GDP per capita growth remained on the same trend over that period, Australians would have been $14,700 better off, the analysis suggests.
“Today, Australians, on an individual basis, are in recession and falling further behind at a time when the country’s cost of living crisis is already acute,” Dr Yeo said.
“Australia’s miserable economic conditions reflect the federal government’s lack of vision and ambition to deliver economic growth. The only trick the federal government seems to be using to grow the economy is to increase immigration alone.”
He added that migration “has played and will continue to play a crucial role in Australia’s story”, but the current number “is putting enormous pressure on our housing costs and infrastructure, has not solved our worker shortage crisis and has left Australians worse off”.
The federal government has introduced a series of immigration reforms, including doubling fees for international student visas, in an attempt to fix a “broken system.”
It also raised the income threshold for temporary skilled immigrants to $73,000 to ensure “wages can grow equitably” after a decade-long freeze.
“The Albany Labor government continues to clean up the mess left by Peter Dutton and the Liberals, and today has taken a major step towards a fairer immigration system for all Australians,” Immigration Minister Andrew Giles said in a statement earlier this month.
“After a decade of deliberate wage suppression by liberals, we are delivering fairer wages for all.”
Labour also increased the number of annual humanitarian aid admissions from 17,875 to 20,000 after taking office.
Home Affairs figures last week revealed that more than 2,000 asylum seekers arrived in Australia in May, the highest number in any month under the Albany government and close to the record of 2,800 set in 2018.
In a speech to the Australian Institute of Family Studies last month, Mr Giles said Australia would “welcome its millionth refugee” in the second half of next year.
“A million people,” he said.
“I am proud to have played a role in growing this humanitarian programme – a reflection of the Labour Party’s deep commitment to humanitarian work. The humanitarian programme literally changes lives.”
Mr Giles said Dutton was “more interested in creating fear than driving”.
“Remember when he said Victorians were afraid to go out to restaurants because of the African gang violence?” he said.
“Or when he said Malcolm Fraser made mistakes in accepting Lebanese Australians? At the next election, there will be a clear choice when it comes to the humanitarian programme. A choice when it comes to extending our proud shared history of global leadership, or whether Australia says no and backs down from a fair try.”
