TORONTO — The return of an Olympic break to the NHL schedule this season — the first in a dozen years — has inevitably led to a condensed schedule and some surprising results.
As we quickly approach that break this week, I figured I’d do one last notebook-style “questions” piece about where we’re leaving things off, and what it means for the rest of the season when the NHL returns.
Let’s get into those questions.
1. Are the teams that are sending the most players to the Olympics at a significant disadvantage?
The disparate nature of teams sending players to the Olympics should, in theory, have a good deal of effect on the rest of the season. Injuries have been a major theme of the year, so getting healthy (by not playing hockey) is a massive advantage.
By my math teams are sending on average just under 4.6 players per team to the Winter Games, which means if you’re sending fewer than that, your team should be getting more bodies rested for the home stretch compared to the rest of the league. And if you’re sending more, you might be falling behind.
According to NHL.com, the Eastern Conference-leading Tampa Bay Lightning are sending nine players, as are their local rival Florida Panthers. You would expect the good teams to be sending more guys, but there are, of course, exceptions.
Buffalo and Detroit are within the top three of the Atlantic Division just behind Tampa and are sending just two and three guys respectively, which seems advantageous. The Edmonton Oilers are just sending three while their rival Vegas is sending seven. All three teams at the top of the Central are way above average (sending between seven and nine players each), while a chasing team like Utah is sending just four.
One thing to watch: of the teams that lead divisions, the Carolina Hurricanes are sending the fewest guys (four), and they’re also rumoured to be big game hunting at the trade deadline. East favourites?
We’ll have to track if there’s any connection between those teams and success/failure down the stretch.
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2. Who most benefits from the break?
Old dudes and the infirm. I spend a lot of time covering the Maple Leafs, so I’ve seen how effective John Tavares is early in the year, and how effective he was coming out of last year’s 4 Nations break.
These days, though, he’s dragging. Matthew Knies has nagging injuries, same with Brandon Carlo, and there’s just a litany of guys who are barely getting through each night.
This goes for most teams in the NHL, and it’s hurting pace of play of late. I imagine that after a break, which coincides with pre-trade deadline hockey, you’re going to see a significant uptick in pace, even with some of the stars not getting much rest at all.
3. What is the Olympic trade freeze, and how does that shape the run up to the trade deadline?
Players wanted a real break, and they’ll get one. Nobody can be traded from Feb. 4 at 3 p.m. ET to Feb. 22 at 11:59 p.m. ET (let’s call it Feb. 23, shall we?). That’s a clean two weeks, save for a few guys who are waiver exempt and can be sent to the AHL provided they meet certain criteria (outlined here by PuckPedia).
Coming out of the break you’ll see 12 days from Monday, Feb. 23 to Friday, March 6, where guys can be traded. Teams are not allowed to practice between and including Feb. 6 and Feb. 16, meaning they’ll be back for almost a week of practice before game action resumes, and GMs will be back at work too. What I’m getting at is I think many conversations will be had that week, and several deals will be put in the drawer to finalize in the ensuing build up to the deadline.
4. Will any of the risers in the Atlantic drop and open the door for the chasers?
The Red Wings and Sabres are currently slated to meet in the “Holy Crap We’re Back In The Playoffs” Bowl, while Montreal and Boston currently sit as wild card holders. The gap between these teams and anyone else is significant, but the problem is there’s some motivated teams chasing as we head into the season’s final 25 games or so.
My two cents: everyone not named Boston is pretty safe. But the Bruins are in the final spot, and they neither create nor limit expected goals at a league average level. There’s potential for one spot to open up here, and no shortage of suitors for it.
5. Where is the push coming from in the East?
Some of the teams on the outside looking in:
The Leafs, who have already declared themselves as sellers, would not-so-secretly like to get red hot and play their way back into this thing. Even if they prune a little talent at the deadline, the idea of getting suddenly-good-again goaltending, a healthy William Nylander, Matthew Knies, Brandon Carlo, and a rested Tavares, could help them win some games down the stretch and be annoying.
The Ottawa Senators, who by the underlying numbers are right there with the league’s five best teams, just haven’t gotten saves. But they’re getting saves lately, Linus Ullmark is back, and they’re hopeful.
The two-time defending Cup champion Florida Panthers also lurk back there, and watching them get super hot isn’t impossible either.
If we’re talking just about the final wild card spot, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the closest to it and have won nine of their past 10 games. Meantime, the Capitals still have a heap of talent and a very good goalie.
Somebody in the basement is going to get hot, no doubt.
6. How aggressive will Edmonton be at the deadline?
The Oilers are slowly finding their way to some depth scoring, something that’s plagued them over their years on a quest for the Cup. But they still need to shore up their defending, and given their prime stars and the experience they’ve got, you have to believe they’re going to take another big swing at the deadline. Frankly, it would be crazy not to, as the rest of the Pacific is a bit of a dog’s breakfast right now.
7. Is Vegas going to get it sorted out?
The Golden Knights have 25 total wins and have been mangled by a bizarre inability to close out the zillion overtime games they’ve been in (they’ve won seven of 21). It’s really something to see a team that talented play 55 games and win just 18 of them in regulation, one fewer than St. Louis and Nashville.
I’ll give Vegas some credit though: like Ottawa, they’ve really just got to get some saves. They’re getting the fourth-worst team save percentage this season despite having some of the league’s best defensive metrics. Get saves, and they’ll win. But that goes for a lot of teams.
8. What’s the NHL schedule look like coming out of the Olympic break?
Busy! There’s no fewer than four games a night, every night, until the trade deadline, and most teams play at least five times. The Leafs happen to play a series of back-to-backs (Tampa Bay-Florida, then New Jersey-NY Rangers), and they’re not unique. It’s going to be a sprint to the finish.
From the March 6 deadline onwards, the final playoff races will heat up and teams will have less than six weeks to get things sorted out before the season ends April 16.
9. Can anyone hang with the best of the Central?
Colorado, Minnesota, and Dallas are all loaded up, and all currently top-five in the NHL by points percentage. Unfortunately for them, with this NHL playoff format, they have to play their way out of the division first, which means one fun thing for fans: a trade deadline arms race.
Colorado is the clear front-runner, but with a big move or two either of the green teams would take over the mantle as Cup favourites.
10. Is an Olympic break in the NHL schedule worth the hassle?
Everyone’s welcome to their own opinion on this, but here’s what I’ve got:
Players are going to love it. They wanted this, dreamt about it.
Players are also not going to love it. Yes, the condensed schedule is hard, but a February break is rare and welcome.
As a hockey fan, I love it. I like that there are more games more often during the season (I don’t have to play in them), and I’m thrilled to watched the Olympics.
